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Posted June 10, 2005: Wheat made up 71 percent of all U.S.
grain consumption in 2003. One pound of wheat makes
0.98 pound of whole-wheat flour but only 0.74 pound
of refined flour. If manufacturers increased the amount
of whole-wheat flour production from 5 percent of flour
production (estimated amount in 2003) to the Guidelines
recommendation of 50 percent, only 797 billion bushels—versus
912 billion bushels—of wheat will be needed. Unless
secondary demand increased to make up some or all of
the difference, demand for wheat for domestic flour
production would drop by around 13 percent. This would
put downward pressure on wheat prices. However, since
less than a third of the wheat supply is used for domestic
food consumption, the price effect is likely to be limited.
A drop in wheat demand would trigger a change in land
allocation. ERS estimates that for each 1-percent increase
in domestic production of whole-wheat flours, 50,000
to 70,000 fewer acres of wheat would be harvested (based
on the marketing year 2004/05 yield of 43.2 bushels
per acre). To put this acreage drop into perspective,
there are a projected 58 million acres planted to wheat
in 2005, with a projected wheat harvest of 49.3 million
acres.
Some farmers will shift wheat acreage to other crops
or varieties. More acreage might be planted with hard-white
wheat if the demand increases for foods made with it
and if the current price premiums of 1 to 3 percent
are sufficiently high, or rise, to overcome producers’
hesitation to grow this crop. (Hard-white wheat varieties
are more susceptible to pre-harvest rainfall damage
than hard-red wheat varieties.) In 2003, plantings of
hard-white wheat accounted for 2.3 percent of all wheat
grown in major States, largely in the Pacific Northwest
and the Plains (e.g., Washington, Kansas, and Colorado).
A shift to whole grains could also affect the demand
for certain kinds of grains—and the demand for
acreage suitable for growing those varieties. Rye flour
and oat/barley products, which are mainly whole grain,
could become more popular, as could minor grain products
such as kasha and bulgur.
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